Understanding the Fibonacci Football Betting Strategy
You may have heard of the Fibonacci system either at school as a mathematical concept or in the betting world as a system for wagering. In betting terms, the strategy is defined as a progressive negative system, which means that any stake should be increased after a loss to cover any previous deficits. In that respect, the system falls into the same category as the Martingale and d’Alembert strategies.
The formula was first put to print in the 13th century by the Italian mathematician, Leonardo Pisano Bigoll, and is calculated by adding the previous two numbers in a sequence together. So, if the sequence starts with a zero and a one, it would look like this: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, etc.
If we look at that sequence when applied specifically as a football betting strategy, it would mean that each number represents the stake placed on a football bet and the sequence is followed until a win is recorded, at which point, the punter would start again – or go back two steps in the sequence. As it is impossible to bet a zero stake, the system would start like this: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc.
The first drawback with this system is that a win does not automatically cover all previous losses unless it is applied to bets with odds of 81/50 (2.62) or higher. This is where it differs from the Martingale system, where a single win covers any losses incurred on a losing sequence of even money (2.00) bets.
However, as the number of wins and losses balances out over the long-term, any player using the Fibonacci system on even money bets should find themselves in profit or at least breaking even, providing they have the funds to keep increasing their stake after losing streaks.
Of course, football betting strategies can take many forms, from finding the best value, working out form or researching a specific market such as how many goals will be scored in a match, and there are many bets that can be used in the Fibonacci sequence. However, draws are often priced close to the 81/50 benchmark so that market is often used by those who favour the Fibonacci system. If a player chooses to apply the system to bets at these higher odds though, the chances of encountering a long losing streak are increased. As a result, the amount needed to continue wagering can soon add up, a common flaw in many progressive betting systems.
For that reason, a significant bankroll may be required to implement this system. For example, a run of 13 matches without a draw would require a total bankroll of nearly £1,000 if the player is starting from a £1 bet – and each loss after that would increase the stakes by a significant amount. While these increases are not as dramatic as with some systems, they still make it prohibitive for most punters.
In summary, every betting system is ultimately flawed and requires a certain amount of luck to work. Long losing streaks can and do occur, and players can soon find themselves having to wager large amounts to keep the sequence going. At this point, stake limits can also prevent further wagering. As a concept, the system looks good but, in reality, only players with unlimited funds wagering in an unlimited stake environment can guarantee a profit.
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